2026 Employer Health Care Costs Projected to Rise Nearly 8%

Jun 8, 2026 | Client Report, Drug costs, Employer costs, Health care costs, Outpatient care, Rx Costs

Milliman’s 2026 Medical Index projects a 7.9% increase in per-person health care costs for employer-sponsored plans — the highest annual rise in more than a decade, outside of pandemic years.

From 2021 to 2025, Milliman’s national medical & pharmacy trend averaged 5.0%. By comparison, MedBen’s client trend during the same period was 4.3%, as noted in our 2026 Client Report.

Other key findings:

  • Pharmacy costs remain the fastest-growing category, rising nearly 15% per person, largely driven by GLP-1 medications.
  • Outpatient care now represents roughly 31% of total employer-sponsored spending and has more than quadrupled for a family of four over the past 20 years.
  • Employers’ share of total health care costs has declined from 61% in 2005 to 58% today, while employees’ share of premiums has increased from 21% to 27%.

For the full report, visit Milliman’s site.